The 2022 Mid-Term Elections

As the media continues to scream “no red wave” in every possible way and on every imaginable platform they have, of course, missed the real message.  Its not that “the people” rejected the MAGA crowd.  Its that the MAGA crowd shrunk by just an itty-bitty little bit.

In Co 3, Lauren Boebert (R) has 50.2% of the vote with 99% reporting, leading Adam Frisch by some 1,100 votes and Mr. Frisch has conceded.

Kari Lake (R) lost the AZ governorship to Katie Hobbs by 50.4% to 49.6% – the difference being under 20,000 votes out of 2.1 million.  Lake, like her idol, Trump, has not conceded.

Catherine Cortez Mosto (D) won over Adam Laxalt (R) in NV, by 7,900 votes out of just over 1 million.

Ron Johnson (R) beat Mandela Barnes (D) in WI by 26,000 votes out of almost 3 million for a Senate seat.

Ron DeSantis crushed Val Demings in FL

Doug Mastriano received over 2.2 million votes.

Marjorie Taylor Green won 66% to 34% in GA 14

The point is the Dems won by not losing as much as they were expected to, but add up all the votes and guess what?  Of all the votes cast for Senate, 51.4% went to Democrats.  Just to show, Joe Biden won the popular vote with 51.3% of votes cast.  As a forecast of 2024, this anticipates another electoral nail biter.

In states won by Democrats, the Republicans received 44.8 of the total votes.  In states won by Republicans, Democrats won 40.7% of the vote – i.e., when the Republicans won, they won bigger.  Note:  I had to do this by hand – doing 35 Senates seats was do-able, but 435 House seats, not so much.  That explains why I did not bother to do the House of Representatives.

The point being that this should not be considered a “win” for the Democrats, but rather a loss for the skewed results of MAGA dominated Republican primaries which chose some truly unpalatable candidates.  And even if those unpalatable candidates lost (e.g., Oz, Mastriano, Lake) and not all did (Paul Gosar ran unopposed in AZ 9) it was close.

We have not solved the ugly divisiveness that the Trump administration accelerated and fostered.  We have not graduated beyond ad hominem attacks on opponents.  We certainly have not rid ourselves of the political violence of the past 6 years.  Yes, character counts.  And I am glad that the 1.3% difference was anti-MAGA.  But don’t fool yourself, this new Republican-led House is going to spend its time on Hunter Biden, the US southern border, the origin of Covid-19, the US Department of Justice (and the FBI), and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.  Now, yes, Hunter Biden screwed up big-time, but we already know that.  The rest is political theatre and/or structured to try to make Biden look bad.  What it is not is governing – something that Speaker McCarthy and his party have yet to demonstrate.  Moreover, it is not about anything that might help you or your family – its not about inflation and its real causes this time, its not about a living wage (if the minimum wage had kept up with inflation it would be $24 an hour), its not about protecting Social Security and Medicare, it is not about lower drug prices and medical care.  It will be about those investigations above and a lot of noise about such things as genitals and who has them and what to call the people who have which ones, with whom you have sex with, love, or marry, and how many minority and other suspected pro-Democratic voters they can prevent from voting.

My best guess is the next two years of a Republican controlled House will pass no legislation truly intended to help the majority of the citizens of this country.  We will get to see if the Republicans can marginalize the extremists within the Party.  This election proves that the MAGA wing lost its momentum and halo with many Republicans..  But we are not done with them or Trumpism.  This election was too close.  Too close for me to do anything but feel like I dodged one bullet out of all those that are coming.

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