Can He Win?

I like Joe Biden.  I think he has been a very good President and has achieved a tremendous amount despite a razor-thin majority in the Senate and a Republican (sort-of) House.  His administration has been tremendously effective in spite of the fact that the House Republicans have been pretty clear that they would rather see the US fail than let Joe Biden do the right thing for the country. 

Biden has made significant investments in our infrastructure and our competitiveness, and has overseen a reduction in poverty, an increase in wages, and lower unemployment.  He has kept a  focus on health (physical and mental), and has reestablished a real working relationship with NATO.  His support of Ukraine against Russian aggression is just one example of his administration’s commitment to democracy and against autocracy.  Despite claims to the contrary, gas prices did not rise because the US hampered oil production – in fact, the US is producing more oil than ever before and is now the world’s largest producer.  His comments about “corporate greed” contributing to inflation are spot on as company after company, including oil companies, reports record profitability during this time of high inflation.

I do not like Donald Trump.  I didn’t like him years ago when I met him, and I like him even less now.  He is ignorant or dismissive of our shared values and our Constitution.  He has denigrated women, veterans, immigrants (legal or otherwise), various countries and most minorities, Black Americans, Jewish Americans, and Hispanic Americans in particular.  He is a rapist, a serial adulterer, and a corrupt businessman who cheats on his taxes and cheats his suppliers.  He lies incessantly and believes that whatever he says is the truth.  He is an autocrat, and he and his family are beholden to the Russians and the Saudis due to financial finagling, debt, or information that he doesn’t want public. 

Trump tolerates and supports white supremacy and the Christian Identity movement, has and will continue to both increase the budget deficit and cut corporate taxes, will further damage regulatory oversight of clean air, clean water, rapacious business practices, and civil rights.  He is an economic neophyte and he does not listen well.  He supports abandoning the Constitutional separation of church and state and he has turned the Supreme Court into a fan club of liars, hypocrites, and religious fanatics a number of whom have clearly offered themselves up for sale.  Another Trump administration will continue all of the above plus move this country closer to autocracy. 

To be sure, the far-left wing Democrats has gone off the rails, led by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).  The squad’s has produced a constant  stream of “woke” ideas and who have supported some truly nutsy things that the vast majority of Americans find overbearing, ridiculous, or distasteful.  A tiny minority of Democrats have been allowed to carry the narrative and no, that narrative does not sell.  Quite frankly, even though their numbers are declining (Jamal Bowman lost his primary and Cori Bush looks to be losing hers) I think the Democrats should expel the DSA from the Democratic party.  The Mainstream Dems have not done nearly enough to distance the party from the progressives’ extremes and in fact appear to be swayed by a small minority of its members into taking some really odd positions.  There is no question that this hurts them with the centrist public.

The Republicans, on the other hand, have allowed the inmates to take over the asylum.  They have circled around Donald Trump, joined hands, and promoted the very frightening Project 2025 manifesto.  Trump has selected a VP candidate in JD Vance who is no fan of the Constitution (he says he would do what Mike Pence refused to do, i.e., not certify the 2016 presidential election), favors Russia over Ukraine and has a win at any cost mindset.  This is the guy who not that long ago was a “never Trumper” who said Trump could be “America’s Hitler.”  The source of this transformation is obvious – Vance admits he would not have won his Ohio Senate seat without Trump’s endorsement. 

The Republicans have gone from being “conservatives” to being “regressives”  yearning for days of old where white men called all the shots, minorities knew their place, and women stayed home and had babies.  The party of “light government” has become the party of controlling what books are read in schools, what women can do with their bodies, constricting and reducing voting rights and methods, and using public monies to pay for private, mostly Evangelical Christian and Catholic, schooling. 

Trump wants to deport the 11 million (so he says) undocumented people, the very people who do the shit jobs most Americans would never do, i.e., pick crops, wash dishes, stand outside of Home Depot hoping to get chosen for day work, work 12 hours plus a day in the back of restaurants, dry cars at car washes, clean hotel rooms, rich people’s houses, and office building restrooms as well as other truly attractive employment opportunities.  Want to pay $5 an apple or eat off dirty dishes at a restaurant?  Go ahead and deport the “illegal aliens” , many of whom are the parents of American citizens.  All under the guise that these people are “taking jobs away from [white] Americans” – yeah, right.  The US Chamber of Commerce (not exactly a hotbed of liberal tendencies) reported in late June that there were  3 million more job openings than the 6.5 million of unemployed (8.5 million job openings.  If we assume only half of the 11 million undocumented people are working, that will make the open jobs total 14 million vs an available pool of 6.5 million.  Both the logic and numbers show that the idea that the undocumented immigrants in the US are going to “take your job” is total bullshit. And for the very few Americans who could really be worried about an undocumented immigrant taking your job, it is likely you have made a series of seriously dubious life choices.  You reap what you sow.

And that is my final point.  While we know that all politicians lie to some extent (it’s in the job description), the Republicans have taken this to its unfortunately logical and putrescent conclusion that “facts do not matter.”  What matters?  Winning.  And it is working.

Which brings me back to Joe Biden.  I am of the belief that an 81-year-old Biden with all of his faults would be better choice for President, more compassionate, more moral, and be able to forge better and stronger relationships with our allies than a 78-year-old Donald Trump who is the antithesis of compassionate, amoral, and has articulated a desire to abandon our current allies for autocrats like Putin and Orban.

Do I believe Joe Biden is diminished?  Yes, just like anyone over the age of, let’s say 75.  Has Biden been any less coherent when he has his “moments” than Trump on a rant?  I do not believe so.

The Presidency is not Family Feud where the person hitting the buzzer fastest gets the first crack at the question.  Does anyone really believe that the President makes critical decisions in a vacuum?  With the exception of Trump, I do not think so.  Presidential decisions are informed by expert advice from numerous sources including the Joint Chiefs, the Security Council and the 15 Cabinet departments.  In addition, the President relies on his Executive Office for analysis and recommendations, including the Vice-President, the Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisors, the CIA and FBI, Domestic Policy, National Security, National Economic, Climate Policy, and National Space for information and advice.  And of course within all that are the CIA, the FBI, the National Institutes of Health, the Center for Disease Control, and the Federal Reserve.

So if Joe Biden gets a name wrong, or takes too long to gather his thoughts to answer a question, or flubs a line, or loses his place in a speech, or walks stiffly, or says something too bluntly or has a terrible bad fuck-up in a debate, I am really not concerned.  In consultation with the vast array of resources available to the President and the reality of the bureaucratic process and reflective thinking, I am comfortable that Joe Biden can and will make the right call.  I may not always agree, but I do not think his is mentally deficient. Or for that matter,  a sociopath like his opponent.

Currently my greatest concern about Joe Biden is whether he can withstand both the  media assault on his capabilities and the public intra-party debate among leading Democrats concerned that if he does not win, the down ballot Democrats will suffer.  and go on to win the election. 

Can Biden win?  That’s the only question that counts.

What has to happen now and damn fast is that the Democratic Party needs to take a page out of the Republican playbook.  They need to decide – Biden in or out  – and place the entire party, all resources, all narratives in support of either Biden or the candidate nominated at the Democratic convention and brook absolutely no dissent.  Once that candidate is chosen, debate over. And yes, that candidate gets my support.

Winning takes discipline and the Democrats need to start showing some.